Vietnam pepper production in 2023

Vietnam pepper production in 2023

ONLY 23,000 TONS OF PEPPER PERFORMANCE FOR EXPORT LAST 6 MONTHS OF 2023?[August-9-10-11-12-January 2024], can you believe it?
I NEVER BELIEVE IT!

By the end of July, Vietnam has exported 169,000 tons of pepper of all kinds, imported about 20,000 tons (including oranges).
Domestic consumption is expected to be 8,000 tons for the whole year.

– Beginning inventory is about 60,000 tons, of which is expected:

+ Will be over the next season about 30,000 tons (that is the amount of processed, unpacked, ready-to-export goods and safe inventory of reputable exporters, they always deliver goods) on time, with the right quality, and of course at a high price—in a nutshell, 30,000 tons of this “ice” is permafrost that won’t melt this year).
+ Thus, there are about 30,000 tons of inventory at the beginning of the period that can be defrosted if the price is suitable (increase equal to or higher than the freezing price).

– If we consider the output of the 2023 crop to be 180 thousand tons, the quantity of goods that has not been exported in this crop is:
180+20-8-169= 23,000 tons.

– It is expected that in 2023, Vietnam will export 240,000 tons (average 20 thousand tons per month), the amount of goods exported by the end of August will be clean.

– From September to next year’s crop (March 2024), completely rely on 30,000 tons of “ice”, the price will have to be satisfied, the owner of this “ice” will accept “defrost”. The price must be over 120k to be able to buy the goods

In general, the fourth quarter of 23 and the first quarter of year 24 is likely to be very stressful.

– Those who have the ability to keep goods longer than 1 year (inventory from the beginning of the season), their financial ability and “stickiness” cannot be underestimated.

– Import of Brazilian pepper in the last 3 months (goods still floating at sea but not arriving in Vietnam) as follows:

+ April: 1,055 tons (expected to dock in July)
+May: 669 tons (expected to dock in August)
+June: 1,483 tons (expected to dock in September)

Remember that it takes up to 3 months for goods to arrive from Brazil to Vietnam, so exporters who sell short with a leak can’t do anything but buy Vietnamese goods for delivery because “far away countries can’t save the fire near”

Forecast

In the last 6 months of the year, each month exports 15k tons, 6 months is 90k tons, plus the whole year 240k tons, this figure is probably modest because in the last 4 years, the last 6 months of the year have never been exported under any year. 130k tons.

Author Nguyen Hung – Vietnam Pepper Association